JAMA, Vol. 277, No. 9. (5 March 1997), pp. 728-734.
OBJECTIVE: To characterize hospital diagnoses, procedures and charges, and nursing home admissions in the year when older persons become severely disabled, comparing those in whom severe disability develops rapidly with those in whom disability develops gradually. DESIGN: A prospective, population-based cohort study with at least 6 annual interviews beginning in 1982. SETTING: A total of 3 communities: East Boston, Mass, New Haven, Conn, and Iowa and Washington counties in Iowa. SUBJECTS: A total of 6070 persons at least 70 years old with at least 1 interview after the fourth annual follow-up and without evidence of previous severe disability, defined as disability in 3 or more activities of daily living (ADLs). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Characteristics associated with development of severe disability after the fourth annual follow-up, in which the disability is classified as catastrophic disability if the individual did not report any ADL disability in the 2 interviews prior to severe disability onset or as progressive disability if the individual had previous disability in 1 or 2 ADLs. RESULTS: In the year during which severe disability developed, hospitalizations were documented for 72.1% of those developing catastrophic disability and for 48.6% of those developing progressive disability. In the corresponding year, only 14.7% of those who were stable with no disability and 22.3% of those with some disability were hospitalized. The 6 most frequent principal discharge diagnoses included stroke, hip fracture, congestive heart failure, and pneumonia in both severe disability subsets; coronary heart disease and cancer in catastrophic disability; and diabetes and dehydration in progressive disability. These diagnoses occurred in 49% of those with catastrophic disability and 25% of those with progressive disability. In both severe disability subsets, the oldest patients received less intensive hospital care as indicated by charges for surgery, diagnostics, and rehabilitation and by the percentage who received major diagnostic procedures; they were also more often admitted to nursing homes. CONCLUSIONS: In the year when they become severely disabled, a large proportion of older persons are hospitalized for a small group of diseases. Hospital-based interventions aimed at reducing the severity and functional consequences of these diseases could have a large impact on reduction of severe disability.
L Ferrucci, JM Guralnik, M Pahor, MC Corti, RJ Havlik
Hospital diagnoses, Medicare charges, and nursing home admissions in the year when older persons become severely disabled.
Medicare News, Syndicated
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Mar 072007
JAMA, Vol. 277, No. 9. (5 March 1997), pp. 728-734.Longevity and Medicare expenditures.
Medicare News, Syndicated
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Mar 072007
N Engl J Med, Vol. 332, No. 15. (13 April 1995), pp. 999-1003.
BACKGROUND. In the United States, the elderly account for over one third of health care spending. The total population over the age of 65 is projected to increase, as is life expectancy beyond the age of 65. We studied current patterns of Medicare expenses according to age at death and the possible effect of future demographic changes on Medicare spending. METHODS. We used data from the Medicare program to estimate lifetime Medicare expenses for a sample of 129,166 beneficiaries, 65 or older, who died in 1989 and 1990, according to age at death. Spending for nursing home care not covered by Medicare was excluded. (Nursing home costs represent about 20 percent of total health care spending for the elderly and increase with age.) Through simulation, we assessed the lifetime payments by Medicare for enrollees who turned 65 in 1990 and those who will do so in 2020. RESULTS. Estimated lifetime Medicare payments (in 1990 dollars) ranged from $13,044 for persons who died at 65 years of age, to $56,094 for those who died at 80, to $65,633 for those who died at 101 or older. The payments associated with an additional year of life and the average annual payments over an enrolle's lifetime both decreased as the age at death increased. The estimated 7.9 percent increase in life expectancy beyond 65 years that will have taken place between 1990 and 2020 (19.1 years past the age of 65 in 2020, as compared with 17.7 years in 1990) was associated with an estimated increase of 2.0 percent in lifetime Medicare payments. Of the estimated $98 billion increase in total lifetime payments (in 1990 dollars) from the 1990 group to the 2020 group, 74.3 percent was due to the larger size of the original birth cohort who will reach the age of 65 in 2020, 22.5 percent to an increase in the proportion of that birth cohort projected to survive to 65 years of age, and 3.2 percent to improved life expectancy beyond 65. CONCLUSIONS. The effect on Medicare spending of increased longevity beyond the age of 65 may not be great. Total Medicare payments will be more substantially affected by the expected increase in the absolute number of elderly people.
J Lubitz, J Beebe, C Baker
BACKGROUND. In the United States, the elderly account for over one third of health care spending. The total population over the age of 65 is projected to increase, as is life expectancy beyond the age of 65. We studied current patterns of Medicare expenses according to age at death and the possible effect of future demographic changes on Medicare spending. METHODS. We used data from the Medicare program to estimate lifetime Medicare expenses for a sample of 129,166 beneficiaries, 65 or older, who died in 1989 and 1990, according to age at death. Spending for nursing home care not covered by Medicare was excluded. (Nursing home costs represent about 20 percent of total health care spending for the elderly and increase with age.) Through simulation, we assessed the lifetime payments by Medicare for enrollees who turned 65 in 1990 and those who will do so in 2020. RESULTS. Estimated lifetime Medicare payments (in 1990 dollars) ranged from $13,044 for persons who died at 65 years of age, to $56,094 for those who died at 80, to $65,633 for those who died at 101 or older. The payments associated with an additional year of life and the average annual payments over an enrolle's lifetime both decreased as the age at death increased. The estimated 7.9 percent increase in life expectancy beyond 65 years that will have taken place between 1990 and 2020 (19.1 years past the age of 65 in 2020, as compared with 17.7 years in 1990) was associated with an estimated increase of 2.0 percent in lifetime Medicare payments. Of the estimated $98 billion increase in total lifetime payments (in 1990 dollars) from the 1990 group to the 2020 group, 74.3 percent was due to the larger size of the original birth cohort who will reach the age of 65 in 2020, 22.5 percent to an increase in the proportion of that birth cohort projected to survive to 65 years of age, and 3.2 percent to improved life expectancy beyond 65. CONCLUSIONS. The effect on Medicare spending of increased longevity beyond the age of 65 may not be great. Total Medicare payments will be more substantially affected by the expected increase in the absolute number of elderly people.
J Lubitz, J Beebe, C Baker
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